另外，資產負債表報告也展示商業票據融資便利機制 (CPFF II LLC) 首度使用的情形，該項機制是由美國財政部入股支持所設立，本週二 (15 日) 起開始運作。截至當日，Fed 透過新機制持有的資產總額為 9.74 億美元。
紐約 Fed 總裁 John Williams 週五 (18 日) 表示，Fed 仍在持續購買資產，但現在已經能夠削減購買規模。
John Williams 說道：「在 Fed 的干預下，美國核心的公債市場已顯示恢復跡象，我們現在已經能夠看到一個運作更加穩定的金融市場，這有助於幫助所有市場走向復原。」
德意志銀行預計，Fed 資產負債表佔 GDP 比例有望在今年底上升至 39%，持有的可流通公債佔 GDP 比例將上升至 25%。
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Norway’s
central bank said it’s ready to intervene in currency markets for the
first time in more than two decades, after the krone became the victim
of the worst sell-off in its history.
“In recent days, there has been an extraordinary situation in
the market for Norwegian kroner and movements in the exchange rate have
been historically large,” the central bank said on Thursday. “Against
this background Norges Bank is continuously considering whether there is
a need to intervene in the market by purchasing Norwegian kroner.”
With a slump in the price of oil pummeling western Europe’s
biggest crude exporter, and liquidity getting sucked out of small
markets, Norway’s currency appeared to have no buyers.
The krone sank as much as 7% against the euro, after slumping up to 12% in the previous session. Against the dollar, it plunged 7.5%, following declines as deep as 14% on Wednesday.
The fury of the sell-off is unprecedented, according to
currency strategists. And the statement by Norges Bank appeared to do
little to reassure the market. The krone was still down more than 3%
against the euro and 4% versus the dollar after its announcement.
“The
moves in markets are unleashing the whole tool kit of central banks and
this is potentially the next round of measures high Beta/oil exporters
may consider,” said Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Nomura.
The
announcement by Norges Bank may take some steam out of the “relentless”
decline in the krone, “but history shows that FX interventions can only
slow, not stop, fundamental moves,” he said. Rochester also noted that Norway’s current stack of currency reserves is smaller than the daily trading turnover. “Good luck, Norges,” he wrote. It’s why the market did little more than “shrug.”
Not since the 1990s has Norway specifically used its monetary
policy to steer the exchange rate. Back then, the central bank was
ultimately forced to abandon the strategy after the Asian crisis of the
late 1990s proved too intense to fight. The last time Norges Bank
conducted an outright currency intervention was in 1999, according to a
written response by the bank to Bloomberg.
The Oil Trap
It’s
“all about the oil collapse,” said Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt, a senior
analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen. What we’re witnessing now is a
“potentially evil fire-sale loop related to the funding of foreign
assets.”
Norwegian policy makers have been fighting a crisis on
two fronts, as the fallout of the coronavirus brings the domestic
economy to a standstill while the oil-price crash destroys its main
export.
The central bank has responded to the meltdown by
delivering an emergency half-point rate cut earlier this month and
pumping extra liquidity into the economy. The government, which is
backed by the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, has stepped up
stimulus pledges and said it’s willing to do more.
Lomholt
said he sees “a case building that more NOK weakness and volatility
raises financial risks instead of cushioning the negative impact from
COVID-19.”
The Norwegian currency’s future “is anyone’s guess now,” said
Robin Winkler, a strategist at Deutsche Bank. “It’s a broken market.”
Valentin
Marinov, strategist at Credit Agricole in London, wrote that “at the
moment everyone is selling everything to get their hands on USD cash.
The less liquid the asset, the greater the price impact of these flows.”
Norwegian Krone, Euro, US Dollar, EUR/NOK, USD/NOK – TALKING POINTS
Norwegian Krone worst-performing G10 currency amid OPEC price war, coronavirus
USD/NOK continues to surge beyond its 1985 high amid a high demand for US Dollars
EUR/NOK continues to rise after it re-mounting a multi-month inflection channel
USD/NOK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On March 18, USD/NOK
clocked in its biggest one-day gain on record and rose over 7.60
percent as it continues to trade above 1985 highs. Resistance may be
forming around 11.2717 as the pair trades just on the cusp of a
potentially new ceiling. Looking at recent wicks supports the notion
that a small pullback may be in the if prices ultimately fail to close
above 11.2717.
USD/NOK – Daily Chart
USD/NOK chart created using TradingView
A
monthly chart puts USD/NOK price action into perspective, with the pair
up over 19 percent just in March. Two factors have been driving this
price dynamic. The first is the selloff in crude oil
and growth-oriented assets like the Norwegian Krone, which is primarily
used as a medium of exchange in a petroleum-based economy.
The second has to do with increased demand for liquidity, and in this regard, the US Dollar
reigns supreme as the world’s reserve currency. Risk aversion from the
panic-induced selloff in global equities pressured crude oil prices
which were already under strain from the Saudi Arabia-Russia price war.
USD/NOK – Monthly Chart
1972 - 2020
USD/NOK chart created using TradingView
EUR/NOK FORECAST
A similar dynamic is being expressed in EUR/NOK.
After breaking above the August 2019 inflection area – red parallel
channel – the pair has risen approximately 15 percent. From a technical
perspective, the pair is showing signs of a desire to climb higher – as
demonstrated by the long wick – but ultimately lacking resolve.
Consequently, this could mark the start of either a small pullback or a
more gradual ascent.
EUR/NOK – Daily Chart
EUR/NOK chart created using TradingView
Much
like with USD/NOK, EUR/NOK price action this month illustrates the
decline of the Norwegian Krone as part of a broader market-wide selloff.
Furthermore, the interest rates differential between NOK and EUR leaves
considerably more room for the former to adjust downward than the other
way around. Looking ahead, the selloff may be prolonged if Europe – the
primary destination of Norway’s exports – continues to revise down its
growth trajectory.
Norway’s Krone Suffers Worst Drop in Half a Century
(Bloomberg) --
Norway’s central bank said it is ready to intervene after the bottom seemed to fall out of the krone market.
“In recent days, there has been an extraordinary situation in the
market for Norwegian kroner and movements in the exchange rate have been
historically large,” the central bank said on Thursday. “Against this
background Norges Bank is continuously considering whether there is a
need to intervene in the market by purchasing Norwegian kroner.”
With a slump in the price of oil
pummeling western Europe’s biggest crude exporter, and liquidity
getting sucked out of small markets, Norway’s currency appeared to have
no buyers.
The krone sank as much as 7% against the euro, after slumping up to 12% in the previous session. Against the dollar, it plunged 7.5%, following declines as deep as 14% on Wednesday.
The fury of the sell-off is unprecedented, according to currency strategists.
It’s “all about the oil collapse,” said Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt, a
senior analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen. What we’re witnessing now
is a “potentially evil fire-sale loop related to the funding of foreign
assets.”
Norwegian policy makers have been fighting a crisis on two fronts, as
the fallout of the coronavirus brings the domestic economy to a
standstill while the oil-price crash destroys its main export.
The central bank has responded to the meltdown by delivering an
emergency half-point rate cut earlier this month and pumping extra
liquidity into the economy. The government, which is backed by the
world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, has stepped up stimulus pledges
and said it’s willing to do more.
Lomholt said he sees “a case building that more NOK weakness and
volatility raises financial risks instead of cushioning the negative
impact from COVID-19.”
The Norwegian currency’s future “is anyone’s guess now,” said Robin Winkler, a strategist at Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn). “It’s a broken market.”
Valentin Marinov, strategist at Credit Agricole (PA:CAGR)
in London, wrote that “at the moment everyone is selling everything to
get their hands on USD cash. The less liquid the asset, the greater the
price impact of these flows.”
The
USDNOK retreated slightly from its record highs following the decision
of the Norwegian central bank to cut interest rates, following examples
of other central banks across the world. The Norges Bank delivered a 75
bps interest rate cut, sending the policy rate to a record low of 0.25%
in an unscheduled emergency meeting today. This is the 2nd
such cut delivered in a week, with last week’s 50bps interest rate cut
being the first time the Norges Bank was cutting rates in 4 years.
This
enabled the Norwegian Krone to gain some strength, having been on the
back foot for the past three weeks on the back of falling crude oil
prices. Prior to today’s price move, the USDNOK had exceeded the 12.000
mark to set a new record high price level of 12.1224, representing a
nearly 20% gain in what has been an extraordinary week for this pair.
Today’s
decision has allowed the USDNOK to pullback towards the 11.84693 price
level, even though price bias for the day has favoured the bulls on the
pair.
With
no historical price to make reference to in terms of possible
resistance areas, we have to look towards the indicators to show the
way. The RSI is starting to show divergence from the price highs on the
daily chart. The 4-hour chart shows that price had retraced to the 50%
Fibonacci retracement (10.7995) of a trace from the swing low of 10
March 2020 to yesterday’s swing high.
I expect the immediate
resistance to be registered at the 23.6% Fibonacci price level of
11.4641, which corresponds to the high of 18 March and the close of 19
March 2020. Below this level, today’s intraday low at 10.7995 could
serve as the next downside target.
On the flip side, price could
retest yesterday’s high and even surpass it if the prevailing strength
in the USD and weakness in the crude oil markets persist.
