Thursday, April 30, 2015

聯儲局維持利率不變 無暗示何時加息 美國經濟急減速 一季度年率GDP僅增0.2%

聯儲局維持利率不變 無暗示何時加息
2015/04/30 08:01

聯儲局召開議息會議後,決定維持聯邦基金利率於0至0.25厘區間不變,符合市場預期,未有暗示何時開始加息。

聯 儲局在會後聲明中指,冬季期間美國經濟增速放緩,部份是由於暫時性因素所致。勞動力市場資源利用不足的情況未見好轉,企業投資放慢,出口下滑。家庭支出增 幅下滑,但家庭實際收入強勁增加,部份是由於之前能源價格下跌,消費者信心仍高。當局重申,當對通脹有合理信心而且勞動力市場繼續改善時,才會選擇加息。

當局又指,雖然經濟有所放緩,但委員仍預期,在適度寬鬆的政策下,美國經濟將重拾溫和增長勢態,勞動力市場亦會繼續改善。




Fed, White House fail to mention the D-word


Getty Images
Janet Yellen




By
D.C. bureau chief
There’s a word that both the Federal Reserve and the White House didn’t mention Wednesday that has played havoc with the U.S. economy this year — the dollar.
Search the text of the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement, or the statement put out by the White House after the disappointing first-quarter gross domestic product report, and you won’t find any direct mentions of the strength of the greenback.
Part of that is down to politics and the mantra that only the Treasury speaks about the dollar. Because, without mentioning the dollar, the Fed pretty well describes what has happened.
TimeWSJ Dollar IndexMay 14Jul 14Sep 14Nov 14Jan 15Mar 15
XX:BUXX
707580859095
“Inflation continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports,” the Fed said.
That doesn’t sound like much, but look carefully at the back part of that sentence — the reference to “decreasing prices of non-energy imports.” That’s another way to say that consumers and businesses can buy more stuff and services from abroad for less.
And, why is that? Because the dollar is up 26% against the euro over the last 52 weeks, and about 17% vs. a broader set of currencies as measured by the WSJ dollar index BUXX, +0.02%  .
The White House allusion to the dollar is even more subtle. Written by Jason Furman, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, the White House statement does note that volumes of U.S. exports are sensitive to foreign GDP growth. This weak growth has of course helped the dollar to rise.
Furman has previously been on the record about the dollar being a headwind for U.S. growth. Whether the new tone is a result of pressure internally from colleagues at Treasury or more a political shift isn’t clear.
Either way, both the Fed and the White House are finding it hard to ignore the biggest elephant in the room.




美國經濟急減速 一季度年率GDP僅增0.2%

2015/04/30
美國商務部於4月29日發佈的數據顯示,2015年一季度(1~3月)美國實際國內生産總值(GDP、快報值)按年率計算僅增長0.2%。與增長2.2% 的2014年四季度(10~12月)相比大幅減速。主要原因是嚴冬導致個人消費下滑,同時出口也因受美元升值等影響而轉為負增長。美國經濟的急劇減速或將 對美聯儲(FRB)的加息時間造成影響。

 一季度的實際增長率大幅低於市場此前預測的約1%,幾乎實際下降至零增長水平。這在很大程度上是受冬季天氣因素等的影響,因此也有很多觀點預 測,2015年下半年將重回2%左右的穩定增長軌道。美聯儲將在考慮就業形勢的基礎上,慎重觀察2015年春季以後美國經濟復甦腳步是否改善。

 一季度,佔美國經濟約70%比重的個人消費支出環比年化增長率為1.9%,與增長4%以上的2014年四季度相比,增長勢頭有所放緩。雖然服務部門比較堅挺,但汽車相關等産品消費萎靡不振,欠缺推高實際GDP的力度。

  一季度的出口減少7.2%,自2014年一季度以來,時隔4個季度出現負增長,成為增長放緩的主要因素。很多觀點認為,出口放緩的原因除了西海岸的港口勞資糾紛和惡劣天氣之外,還包括美國升息預期帶來的美元迅速升值的影響。

  此外,民間設備投資減少3.4%。這顯示出,由於美元大幅升值和原油降價,美國企業正在加強減少設備投資行為。

      (矢澤俊樹 華盛頓報導)
《美國股巿》道指反覆跌74點 GDP數據疲弱
2015/04/30 07:59
美股下跌,美國首季GDP放緩至增長0.2%,一年來最差兼遜預期,不過由於經濟疲弱亦令聯儲局6月加息的機會進一步降低,大市跌幅收窄,三大指數收市跌0.4%-0.6%。

道瓊斯工業指數曾跌最多156點,收市跌74.61點或0.41%,收報18,035.53點。

標準普爾500指數跌7.91點或0.37%,報2,106.85點。

納斯達克指數跌31.78點或0.63%,報5,023.65點。

美國鋼鐵挫11.6%,首季績意外虧損。聯合健康保險集團跌3.4%。科技股偏弱,蘋果公司股價一度破頂後收市轉挫1.5%,有傳Apple Watch因零件瑕疵導致供貨受限。雅虎跌2.4%。阿里巴巴挫3.1%。