预算就是通不过 美国政府面临关门
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| 美国之音 2011-02-24 13:34:01 |
美国政府2011年财政预算至今尚未通过，国会必须在3月4号以前通过一个临时预算法案，否则许多政府部门将再次面临关闭的危险。
上星期五晚上，众议院挑灯夜战到星期六清晨才通过维持美国政府机构继续运转的“持续决议”(continuing resolution)。
共和党控制的众议院通过的“持续决议”最引人注目的是从政府提交的2011年财政预算中削减了一千多亿美元的开支， 包括教育部，美国航空航天局等部门的开支都被削减。
众议院议长、共和党人贝纳在上星期四的记者会上被问到政府关闭的可能性时，他没有正面回答，而是强调共和党削减开支的决心：“当我们说要削减开支的时候，请大家仔细听好了，我们就一定会削减开支。”
本星期是美国国会参众两院的休会期，或者叫做选区工作期，议员们大多数返回了家乡展开选区工作。 下星期复会后，预算问题一定是民主党控制的参议院重点讨论的问题，否则联邦政府3月5号就要关闭。
华盛顿智库布鲁金斯研究所专家拉夫.布莱恩特
(Ralph C. Bryant)说，如此这样大手笔的削减幅度很难在参议院通过：“正因为如此，
才有这么大的争议，政府很有可能关闭，因为参议院的民主党人不会同意这么大幅度的削减，白宫也会用自己的力量来反对。必须有人做出让步，问题是谁先让步，
双方会达成什么样的妥协。”众议院共和党人提出一项短期计划，让政府在3月4号的期限过后还能持续运转两个星期；但是计划中仍包含40亿美元的削减，被民主党领袖批评没有诚意。
美国政府上次关闭是在1996年财政年度，导致两次政府关闭，第一次是1995年11月13号到19号，第二次是1995年12月15号到1996年1月6号，持续了21天。 据统计，政府关闭每一天就要浪费纳税人一亿美元。
布鲁金斯研究所专家布莱恩特说，那次政府关闭从政治上来说，共和党人付出了更高的代价，但现在的政治局势很难说对那一个党负面影响更大。
最新的民调显示，绝大多数美国人希望白宫和国会达成妥协，避免政府关闭。
美联储祭出准备金利率 “退市蓝图”将浮出水面发表时间:2010-02-11 07:36 来源:上海证券报
10日晚23时,美联储主席伯南克公布了其为众议院金融服务委员会听证会所准备的证词,美联储的退市蓝图也由此展开。伯南克在该证词中称,银行的存款准备金利率将可能在必要时代替目前作为基准利率的联邦基金利率作为政策工具。
证词称,美国经济的增长仍然需要具有高度适应性的政策扶持。他同时表示,高失业率以及通胀预期可能令美联储仍然在相当长一段时间内将基准利率维持在低位。这一措辞与上个月美联储召开利率会议后所发表的声明并无太大差别。
但
对于何时加息这一问题,伯南克在10日的证词中仍未给出明确的时间表。证词称,当收紧货币政策时机到来时,美联储可能会通过抽走货币政策工具及扩大操作规
模来测试市场反应,然后再进行升息。圣路易斯联储行长詹姆斯·布拉德也曾表示,美联储最早可能会在今年下半年开始出售部分资产来测试市场反应,前提是经济
复苏进程得到了更好的巩固。
此前还有消息称,美联储一直在考虑将超额准备金利率作为目前美国基准利率的替代者,并由此影响其他关键短期利率,包括银行间的隔夜拆借利率等。
分析人士认为,通过提高超额准备金利率的方式,可以让更多的资金留在美联储,而不是流向市场。若市场利率低于超额准备金利率,银行把钱拿去放贷的意愿将会下降,并将钱存到美联储,以此达到收紧流动性的目的。
目前,超额准备金率的利率为0.25%,而当前基准的联邦基金利率定在0到0.25%间,自2008年金融危机爆发以来,这一利率水平始终被维持在接近零的纪录低位。一旦美联储提高了超额准备金利率,这也将被业内人士解读为正式收紧流动性的开始。
不过,美国当地时间本周四即将公布的零售数据或将成为影响美联储加息步伐的重要因素。市场普遍预计该数据将环比增加0.3%,如果数据符合预期,则说明强劲的消费需求将增加物价上扬的压力,加息的预期也将随之上升。
10日,美元兑主要货币的汇率在伯南克证词公布后,快速上扬。截至北京时间10日23时12分,美元指数报80.18,涨幅0.53%.
Bernanke Says Discount Rate May Rise ‘Before Long’ (Update4)
By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres
Bernanke repeated the Federal Open Market Committee
statement that low rates are warranted “for an extended
period” in testimony prepared for the House Financial Services
Committee. The Fed may also temporarily replace the federal
funds rate as a policy guide with interest it pays on banks’
deposits should fed funds become a “less reliable indicator
than usual,” Bernanke said.
The dollar gained and Treasuries fell as Bernanke previewed
what would be the first interest-rate move in more than a year
while giving more details on tools that may be used to tighten
credit “at some point.” Bernanke, 56, and his fellow policy
makers are preparing to remove unprecedented monetary stimulus
as the world’s largest economy is forecast to grow at the
fastest pace since 2006.
“Before long, we expect to consider a modest increase in
the spread between the discount rate and the target federal
funds rate,” Bernanke said. The change is “not expected to
lead to tighter financial conditions for households and
businesses and should not be interpreted as signaling any change
in the outlook for monetary policy, which remains about as it
was at the time of the January meeting of the FOMC.”
Stocks, Dollar Treasuries fell, pushing the yield on two-year securities up to 0.88 percent from 0.83 percent yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,068.13 at 4:59 p.m. in New York. The dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.3737 per euro from $1.3797 late yesterday.
“He’s trying to tell people that while the Fed is not
contemplating any tightening of monetary policy at the moment,
they’re fully prepared to do what’s necessary to ensure that
their commitment to price stability is made effective,” said
former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, senior economic adviser at
Potomac Research Group in Washington.
In December 2008, the Fed cut the discount rate, charged on
direct loans to commercial banks, to 0.5 percent as it lowered
the benchmark federal funds rate, which banks use for overnight
loans to each other, to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Both
rates have been unchanged since then.
‘Highly Accommodative’
“Although at present the U.S. economy continues to require
the support of highly accommodative monetary policies, at some
point the Federal Reserve will need to tighten financial
conditions by raising short-term interest rates and reducing the
quantity of bank reserves outstanding,” Bernanke, who this
month started his second four-year term as Fed chief, said in
the testimony for a hearing originally scheduled for today and
postponed because of a snowstorm. A new date hasn’t been
announced. Borrowing through the discount window totaled $14.7 billion as of Feb. 3, down from a record $110.7 billion in October 2008, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Loans averaged about $197 million a week in the 12 months through July 2007. A discount-rate change would bring Bernanke back to the first instrument he used when he attacked the financial crisis: lowering the cost of bank liquidity. Before August 2007, the discount rate was set at one percentage point above the federal funds rate. As bank lending began to freeze that month, the Fed reduced the difference to a half-point and narrowed it again, to a quarter-point, in March 2008 in conjunction with its rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. Maximum Loan Term The central bank has already reduced the maximum term of discount-window loans to 28 days from 90 days, “and we will consider whether further reductions in the maximum loan maturity are warranted,” Bernanke said. Once a key barometer of Fed policy, the discount rate has faded in relevance since 1994, when the Federal Open Market Committee began discussing its federal funds rate stance. In 2003, the Fed altered the structure so that the discount rate was above, rather than below, the benchmark rate. The Fed incurred no losses on its $1.5 trillion of emergency lending programs, and the Board of Governors “continues to anticipate” it will not lose money on the bailouts of Bear Stearns and New-York based insurer American International Group Inc. The Fed’s portion of those rescues totals about $116 billion, Bernanke said. Markets Thaw The Fed’s unprecedented actions under Bernanke have helped thaw credit markets. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks’ willingness to lend, has narrowed to 0.10 percentage point from a record 3.64 points in October 2008. The TED spread, the difference between what the Treasury and banks pay to borrow dollars for three months, has narrowed to 0.15 percentage point from as high as 4.64 percentage points in October 2008. Separately, Bernanke said raising the interest rate paid on funds deposited by banks at the Fed, as well as so-called reverse repurchase agreements that temporarily drain cash from the banking system, will probably be the first tools for tightening credit. Bernanke said he doesn’t expect the Fed “in the near term” to sell the $1.43 trillion of housing debt being purchased through next month, “at least until after policy tightening has gotten under way and the economy is clearly in a sustainable recovery.” Fed officials may decide “in the future” to sell securities, he said. ‘Gradual Pace’ “Any such sales would be at a gradual pace, would be clearly communicated to market participants and would entail appropriate consideration of economic conditions,” Bernanke said. The purchases have helped push total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet to $2.25 trillion from $925 billion at the start of 2008. Excess reserves in the banking system total more than $1 trillion. The central bank can use several tools to temporarily remove those reserves from the financial system and thereby raise the federal funds rate. Bernanke said the Fed is expanding the set of counterparties for reverse repurchase agreements, under which it provides securities as collateral in exchange for a short-term cash loan. Bernanke’s message is that “people don’t have to look at this large bloated balance sheet and the huge volume of excess reserves and worry that inflation is going to break out all over the place,” Gramley said. Exit Sequence Bernanke said “one possible sequence” of the exit strategy involves first testing tools for draining reserves “on a limited basis.” Then, “as the time for the removal of policy accommodation draws near, those operations could be scaled up to drain more significant volumes of reserve balances to provide tighter control over short-term interest rates,” he said. The Fed would then execute the “actual firming of policy” by raising the interest rate on bank reserves, Bernanke said. Congress granted the Fed the power in October 2008 as part of the law creating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. While Fed officials have previously said the deposit rate will play a major role in the exit strategy, Bernanke said the rate may replace the federal funds rate, the policy benchmark for the past two decades, until reserves are “much lower.” “It is possible that the Federal Reserve could for a time use the interest rate paid on reserves, in combination with targets for reserve quantities, as a guide to its policy stance, while simultaneously monitoring a range of market rates,” Bernanke said. Months Away The Fed may be months away from tightening credit. U.S. central bankers will begin raising rates in November and increase the benchmark lending rate to 0.75 percent by the end of the year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News in January. The U.S. economy will expand 2.7 percent this year, according to the median estimate. The timing and speed of rate increases may also depend on how quickly the economy can begin to generate job growth. Some economists said Bernanke left out what investors are really watching for: when the Fed will move to tighten credit. “I don’t really see a whole lot of clarity of the timing of actions,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist and partner at RDQ Economics LLC, a New York research firm he founded with John Ryding, a fellow former Bear Stearns Cos. economist. Bernanke sees less stimulus, higher rates aheadBernanke outlines plan for pulling back stimulus once rebound strengthens; rates would rise
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
, On Wednesday February 10, 2010, 5:34 pm EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Prepare for the end of record-low interest rates, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says. Just not yet.Higher rates on credit cards, home equity loans and some mortgages will follow the Fed's eventual pullback of the trillions it injected into the economy. Savers will benefit, though. As rates gradually climb, certificates of deposit and savings accounts will finally pay more. Bernanke indicated Wednesday that the Fed is still months away from raising rates or draining most of the stimulus money it injected to rescue the financial system. For now, the global recovery remains too fragile to pull back much on government stimulus. Europe is facing a debt crisis. And President Barack Obama is making a push to cut taxes to stimulate job creation. Bernanke discussed the Fed's plans in prepared remarks to a House committee hearing that was postponed because of the East Coast snowstorm. Bernanke chose to release the testimony because of interest from investors and others. His testimony outlined the Fed's strategy for reeling in stimulus money once the economic recovery is more firmly rooted. To fight the financial crises, the Fed pumped so much money into the economy for lending programs that its balance sheet swelled to $2.2 trillion -- more than double the pre-crisis level. Bernanke said the central bank will likely start to tighten credit by boosting the rate it pays banks on money they leave at the central bank. Doing so would raise rates tied to commercial banks' prime rate and affect many consumer loans. Bernanke sought to bolster confidence on Wall Street and in Congress that once the economy is strong enough, the Fed has the tools and the will to raise rates and withdraw stimulus aid -- without causing another recession. The goal would be to prevent another speculative asset bubble from forming, such as in stocks or commodities, and ward off inflation. The stock market initially sank, then steadied itself after hearing Bernanke's plans. Investors seemed relieved that the plans didn't mark a shift in policy, and that they set a path for a more normal financial system. The Dow Jones industrial average closed with a modest loss of 20 points. Using the rate it pays on banks' excess reserves to tighten credit would be a new strategy for the Fed. Since the 1980s, its main lever to adjust credit has been the federal funds rate. That's the rate banks charge each other for loans. It's now at a record low near zero. The rate paid on banks' excess reserves is 0.25 percent. Boosting that rate would give banks an incentive to keep money parked at the Fed, rather than lend it. Steering interest rates through the excess reserves rate gives the Fed more control over money floating around the financial system. The Fed sets that rate directly, while its federal funds rate is just a target. For consumers and businesses, the shift in which tool the Fed uses to tighten credit would make little practical difference, economists say. A bump-up in either the rate on excess reserves or the federal funds rate would have an identical result: It would boost the prime lending rate, now at 3.25 percent, by the same amount. The prime rate is used to peg rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other loans to consumers and small businesses. Rates on fixed 15- and 30-year mortgages are influenced mainly by rates on 10-year Treasury securities and wouldn't be directly affected by a Fed tightening. But a bump-up in the Fed's rate on excess reserves would raise short-term Treasury rates and the adjustable home mortgages they're often linked to. A higher rate on banks' excess reserves would make it harder to borrow. Banks will be tempted to keep more money at the central bank, rather than lend it to individuals and businesses. "It's a warning shot for borrowers," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "Banks are not going to lend to XYZ Corp. or John Homeowner and bear the risk of default if they can instead earn a risk-free return by keeping that money with the Federal Reserve." How high rates would go on credit card and home equity loans would depend on the speed with which the economy and loan demand recovers. But because rates are sure to head up, "now is the time to lock in low fixed rates and pay down higher-rate variable debt, especially credit cards," McBride added. What's bad for borrowers will be good for savers, who have been hurt by record-low interest rates. As rates climb, people with interest-bearing investments like CDs will earn more, McBride said. In his remarks, Bernanke laid out his most extensive details to date on the Fed's exit strategy from record-low rates and economic stimulus. Deciding when and how to remove all the stimulus is the biggest challenge for Bernanke in his second term, which started last week. Reeling in the stimulus too soon risks short-circuiting the recovery. That could send unemployment up. If the Fed keeps its stimulus measures in place for too long, they could help unleash inflation. Bernanke repeated the Fed's pledge to hold rates at record lows for an "extended period." Economists think that means for at least six more months. "The Fed is trying to show Wall Street and Congress 'We've done our homework, and we have a strategy for getting back to normal,'" said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight. "This is all designed to build confidence in the Fed's exit strategy." Even before the Fed raises the rate paid on banks' excess reserves, it could raise the rate it charges banks for emergency loans, Bernanke said. That rate, called the discount rate, is 0.50 percent. An increase in the discount rate wouldn't affect interest rates charged to consumers and businesses. The Fed is fine-tuning one tool to withdraw money: By selling securities from its portfolio with an agreement to buy them back later. Those operations are called reverse repurchase agreements. And the Fed is moving ahead on a proposal to let banks to set up the equivalent of certificates of deposit at the central bank. This, too, would help the Fed mop up money pumped into the economy and prevent inflation from flaring later. Bernanke said he doesn't expect the Fed to sell any of its securities any time soon. Bernanke said another economic support program aimed at driving down mortgage rates and bolstering the housing market is on track to end in March. Ending this program would likely send mortgage rates higher. But the Fed hasn't ruled out continuing to buy mortgage securities after March to support the economy.
Bernanke Lays More Groundwork for Exit Without Giving Timetable
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke laid more groundwork for exiting his record expansion
of credit without saying when he’ll take the first step.
By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres
Bernanke yesterday described how the Fed might use tools such as interest it pays on banks’ deposits to tighten credit “at some point.” In congressional testimony, he said a potential increase in the Fed’s discount rate would be part of the “normalization” of lending “before long” and wouldn’t signal a change in the outlook for monetary policy. The 56-year-old Fed chief and his fellow policy makers are trying to determine when to tighten credit with unemployment at 9.7 percent and the world’s largest economy forecast to grow at the fastest pace since 2005. Bernanke also said the U.S. still requires a “highly accommodative” Fed policy, reiterating that low rates are warranted for an “extended period.” Bernanke “kind of walked a fine line,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed monetary-affairs director who’s now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “He wants to reassure investors that they have an exit plan but at the same time not lead them to believe that they’ll head for the exits anytime soon.” Treasuries fell, pushing the yield on two-year securities to 0.88 percent from 0.83 percent on Feb. 9 and to 3.69 percent on 10-year notes from 3.65 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent to 1,068.13 in New York. The dollar climbed 0.6 percent to $1.3711 per euro from $1.3797. Expanding Strategy Expanding on a strategy detailed in July, Bernanke said raising the interest rate paid on funds deposited by banks at the Fed, as well as so-called reverse repurchase agreements that temporarily drain cash from the banking system, will probably be the first tools for tightening credit. Bernanke said he doesn’t expect the Fed “in the near term” to sell the $1.43 trillion of housing debt being purchased through next month, “at least until after policy tightening has gotten under way and the economy is clearly in a sustainable recovery.” Fed officials may decide “in the future” to sell securities, he said in the testimony prepared for a hearing that was postponed because of a snowstorm.
Bernanke said “one possible sequence” of the exit
strategy involves first testing tools for draining reserves “on
a limited basis.” Then, “as the time for the removal of policy
accommodation draws near, those operations could be scaled up to
drain more significant volumes of reserve balances to provide
tighter control over short-term interest rates,” he said.
‘Firming’ Policy The Fed would then execute the “actual firming of policy” by raising the interest rate on bank reserves, Bernanke said. Congress granted the Fed the power in October 2008 as part of the law creating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. “Changes in the interest rate will be broadly telegraphed,” said Anthony Crescenzi, senior vice president at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, which runs the world’s biggest mutual fund. “The first thing that will happen is that there will be a language change, taking ‘extended period’ out” of the Fed’s public policy statement. “By the time we see scaled-up operations” to drain reserves, “they will seem like an afterthought,” Crescenzi said. At the last FOMC meeting, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig dissented from the decision to maintain the pledge of low rates for an “extended period.” “We have moved through the crisis,” Hoenig said in a Feb. 4 speech in Oklahoma City. “We are beginning to think about a growth rate over 3 percent. We need to change the language.”
Policy Guide
Bernanke said the Fed may temporarily replace the federal
funds rate as a policy guide with interest it pays on banks’
deposits should fed funds become a “less reliable indicator
than usual.” Separately yesterday, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in a Dallas speech that policy makers must shrink the balance sheet with the “deftness to minimize credit-market disruptions and the timeliness to avoid inflationary pressures.”
The Fed may be months away from tightening credit. U.S.
central bankers will begin raising rates in the fourth quarter
and increase the benchmark lending rate to 0.75 percent by the
end of the year, according to the median estimate of economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News in February.
The U.S. economy will expand 3 percent this year, according
to the median estimate. The timing and speed of rate increases
may also depend on how quickly the economy can begin to generate
job growth. Some economists said Bernanke left out what investors are really watching for: when the Fed will move. “I don’t really see a whole lot of clarity of the timing of actions,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist and partner at RDQ Economics LLC, a New York research firm he founded with John Ryding, a fellow former Bear Stearns Cos. economist.
Fed in Talks With Money Market Funds to Help Drain $1 Trillion
By Craig Torres and Christopher Condon
The central bank is looking to the $3.2 trillion money-
market mutual-fund industry because the 18 so-called primary
dealers that trade directly with the Fed have a capacity limited
to about $100 billion, estimates Joseph Abate, a money-market
strategist at Barclays Capital in New York.
Money-market funds may welcome the opportunity to trade
with the Fed after the financial crisis reduced the supply of
safe assets in which they can invest. In one example of demand
for such assets, auctions on four-week Treasury bills have
attracted an average of $5.47 in bids for every dollar sold this
year, compared with an average of $3.77 last year, according to
Bloomberg data. Yields on the four-week bill fell to five basis
points from 20 basis points a year ago.
“There are lots of great credit stories, but the option of
going with the Fed and the government -- it takes away part of
the risk,” said Deborah Cunningham, a chief investment officer
at Federated Investors Inc. in Pittsburgh, which manages $318
billion in money-market investments. Conversations with the Fed
“seem pretty positive,” she said, adding that the Fed and the
industry should be in a position to conduct operations before
the end of the year.
Fannie, Freddie
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday charted ways the Fed
might withdraw record monetary stimulus pumped into the economy
to fight the recession. Among the central bank’s tools are
reverse repurchase agreements, in which the Fed sells securities
with the intention of repurchasing them at a later date.
The Fed is also considering reverse repurchase agreements
with mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said the
person familiar with the discussions. Freddie Mac spokeswoman
Sharon McHale declined to comment. Fannie Mae spokesman Brian
Faith also declined to comment.
“To further increase its capacity to drain reserves
through reverse repos,” Bernanke said, the Fed is “in the
process of expanding the set of counterparties with which it can
transact” beyond primary dealers of government securities. The primary dealers, which are required to bid at auctions of Treasury notes and trade directly with the New York Fed’s markets desk, include BNP Paribas Securities Corp., Banc of America Securities LLC and Goldman Sachs & Co. Bernanke repeated yesterday that while interest rates are likely to stay low for an “extended period,” the Fed in “due course” will need to “begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures.” Securities Purchases The central bank has created more than $1 trillion in excess reserves in the banking system through its purchases of $300 billion of Treasury debt and $1.25 trillion of mortgage- backed securities. To put upward pressure on the federal funds rate, the Fed may need to drain as much as $800 billion, Abate estimates. One potential tightening tool is the interest rate on reserves that commercial banks keep on deposit at the Fed. By raising that rate, the central bank “will be able to put significant upward pressure on all short-term interest rates,” Bernanke said. The Fed can also use reverse repos to shrink the quantity of reserves, which in turn gives it “tighter control over short-term interest rates,” he said. Fed officials face the risk that when they start to tighten policy by raising the rate they pay banks on reserves, other market rates may not follow. That would keep monetary conditions too loose in an expansion. Controlling Rates “They still seem nervous that they might not be able to control short rates, and if they can’t control short rates, how do they tighten?” said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC, which manages $200 million in Washington.
The Fed has sought to keep the benchmark rate in a range of
zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. The federal funds rate
is now 0.13 percent, even though banks can earn 0.25 percent by
keeping their money on deposit at the Fed.
One reason for the discrepancy is that Fannie and Freddie
have become “significant sellers” of funds in the overnight
market and aren’t eligible to place cash on deposit at the Fed,
according to a December research paper by the New York Fed.
Some hurdles remain in the Fed’s efforts to secure bigger
repo capacity. Fed officials and mutual-fund industry
representatives are working on a structure that would allow
funds to invest in relatively liquid assets that can be sold in
seven days, while allowing the central bank to avoid having to
renew billions of dollars in transactions each week.
“There needs to be liquidity,” said Cunningham of
Federated. “A reverse repo contract is not considered to be
liquid in the context of anything beyond seven days.”
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