Summers Quit Fed Quest After Democrats Spurned Obama Favorite

 

Lawrence Summers’ withdrawal as a candidate for Federal Reserve chairman came after an unprecedented campaign to stop a Fed nominee even before he was announced, spearheaded by Democratic senators who took on a president of their own party.
The decision by Summers, the former Treasury secretary and economic adviser to President Barack Obama, came as liberal and moderate Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee began publicly and privately signaling their concerns about Summers to the White House.

Several Democratic senators, including Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, mounted a sustained lobbying campaign, pressing colleagues in their own party to oppose Summers on the grounds that he was too lax on financial regulation. They pressed forward as the White House was focused on building support for a military strike in Syria.
“Any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the administration, or ultimately, the interests of the nation’s ongoing recovery.” Summers wrote in a letter yesterday to Obama.
People close to the process said Summers was Obama’s top pick all along, even though White House officials late last week insisted the president had yet to make a decision.
Summers, 58, and Fed vice chairman Janet Yellen, 67, were reported to be the leading candidates. Obama also has said he interviewed Donald Kohn, 70, a former Fed vice chairman. Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner isn’t interested in the job, even after Summers’ withdrawal, said a person familiar with Geithner’s thinking.

Markets React

The dollar weakened against all its major peers while Asian stocks climbed with U.S. index and Treasury futures after Summers’ withdrawal.
The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.5 percent at 10:41 a.m. in Hong Kong and the greenback slumped 1 percent against the Australian dollar. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures jumped 1 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index gained 1.2 percent with Japanese markets closed. Ten-year Treasury futures rose 0.8 percent.
Democratic opposition to Summers’ possible nomination had been building, spurred in part by the efforts of Merkley and Brown, who placed calls to liberal advocacy groups and used weekly caucus lunches to lobby fellow lawmakers to oppose Summers.

Tester’s Announcement

On Sept. 13, Montana Senator Jon Tester, a moderate Democrat, announced he would oppose Summers, bringing the number of “no” votes on the Senate Banking Committee to three, including Merkley and Brown.
The pitch from Merkley and Brown to fellow Democrats was this, according to Senate Democratic aides: if you think you’re going to vote against Summers, speak up now, because it’s less embarrassing to Obama to stop Summers before he’s nominated than after a messy confirmation fight.
Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat and critic of Wall Street, also was involved. She informed the White House last week she would oppose Summers, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Her vote would have meant at least four Democrats on the banking committee were opposed to Summers, meaning the White House would have had to rely on several Republican votes to get him out of the 22-member committee.

Yellen Letter

The Democratic effort spilled into the open when a senator off-handedly acknowledged in late July the existence of a letter of support for Yellen. That letter, drafted and circulated by Brown, was signed by 20 senators.
The letter touched a nerve in the White House, and with Obama himself. He defended Summers days later in a closed-door meeting with Democrats on Capitol Hill, while mentioning that Kohn also was under consideration.
As Democratic opposition grew, Summers’ supporters say the White House didn’t effectively push back. Summers was left vulnerable to what some called a “perfect storm” of events: the delay in his formal nomination, the debate raging over Syria, and the upcoming budget fights with Congress, according to a person familiar with the matter.
In late August, the White House sanctioned former administration officials Stephanie Cutter and Jim Messina to work to counter anti-Summers reporting without ever marshaling current administration officials, many of whom, including most of the economic team, supported Summers, according to people familiar with the situation.

Syria Distraction

A tight circle of the president’s advisers, convened to weigh various Fed candidates, stopped meeting once Syria dominated the agenda and Obama’s attention turned to the divisive debate of whether to launch a military strike in response to the Aug. 21 chemical weapon attack that killed more than 1,400 people.
While Obama’s aides insisted that the Fed chairman’s confirmation process wouldn’t get wrapped up in the budget fights set to start in September, Summers was emerging as collateral damage, the person familiar with the situation said.
Obama, in a statement yesterday, called Summers “a critical member of my team as we faced down the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.” He touted Summers’ “expertise, wisdom and leadership” for helping guide the crisis response and nascent recovery.

Rose Interview

Since June, when Obama in an interview with Charlie Rose indicated he wouldn’t appoint Ben S. Bernanke to another term, intrigue over whether the president would pick Summers or Yellen turned into a political process that Fed watchers called unprecedented.
The turmoil comes at a particularly fragile time for the central bank as it considers whether to begin to reduce the unprecedented bond purchases that have fueled a four-year market rally. Bernanke’s term ends Jan. 31.
As signs over the past few months continued to point to Summers as the leading candidate, 40 percent of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers saw Summers getting the job, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll.
Still, Yellen was viewed more favorably among investors, with 60 percent of respondents holding a positive view, compared with 37 percent for Summers. Thirty-five percent had a negative view of Summers, compared with 15 percent for Yellen.

Clinton Record

Summers was pegged by his opponents as a deregulator for his support of loosened rules on the financial industry during President Bill Clinton’s administration.
In 1998 Summers, then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin blocked efforts by Brooksley Born, then-chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to regulate the derivatives market. It later expanded to include the toxic instruments that led to the 2008 financial market crisis.
Summers also sought repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the Depression-era law separating commercial and investment banking.
“If you nominate someone who is a life-committed deregulator to be in a regulatory position, and if you believe regulation is necessary to prevent fraud, abuse, manipulation and so forth, then there’s a lot of questions to be asked: Why is this person appropriate?” Merkley said in a July interview.
Even those that said they would support Summers voiced concern in interviews about the intraparty fight a Summers nomination would cause in the weeks ahead. Democrats, which hold a 54-46 majority in the Senate, face negotiations on the budget and an increase in the debt ceiling.

Unwanted Fight

“In light of everything he needs from Democrats on the Hill in the weeks and months to come, the last thing he can afford is to antagonize them over the Summers nomination,” Jim Manley, a former senior aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, said of Obama in a telephone interview.
A tough confirmation fight that split Democrats was an unwelcome possibility, three aides familiar with the discussions said. That message was conveyed to the White House by the camp opposed to Summers, according to one of the Senate aides.
Some Republicans were approached by the White House as late as last week as the administration tried to get a better sense of whether Summers could win the required support, one of the aides said. While the entreaties were not rejected, the potential price of the votes was considered too steep, as was the reliability of the Republican lawmakers.
“If they really thought they could pick up the Republican votes necessary to provide a comfortable margin they still can’t figure out what’s going on up on the Hill,” said Manley.
By September 13, what was becoming apparent to the White House earlier in the week would be hammered home. Tester, the Montana Democrat, released a statement announcing his opposition to Summers.
Two days later, Summers’ letter arrived, on the five year anniversary of the peak of the financial collapse that ushered in the economic crisis Summers fought side-by-side with Obama to contain.

薩默斯放棄美聯儲主席候選資格

2013/09/16

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       美國總統歐巴馬9月15日放棄提名前財務部長官勞倫斯·薩默斯（Lawrence Summers）接任即將於明年1月卸任的美聯儲（FRB）主席伯南克。由於執政黨民主黨內部反對提名薩默斯的聲音也很強烈，薩默斯在同一天申請從候選人 中請辭，奧馬巴也接受了這一申請。

       歐巴馬總統已就起用薩默斯擔任下一任美聯儲主席進行最終調整，不過，在美國議會參議院掌握人事決定權的民主黨中派議員中，出現了反對起用薩默斯的聲音，預計即使提名也很難在議會上通過。

       薩默斯同一日在寫給歐巴馬的書信中解釋了請辭的原因，稱「議會很難通過我的提名，FRB和政府所做的一切都是為了美國的經濟再生，雖然這並非我本意,但我還是決定放棄」，由於薩默斯請辭，歐巴馬不得不重新調整新任美聯儲主席的人選。

（藤井彰夫 華盛頓報導）

薩默斯退出角逐 投資界憂風險

〔中央社〕美國前財政部長薩默斯（Lawrence Summers）今天宣布退出角逐聯邦準備理事會（Fed）主席之後，投資人研判，聯準會下任主席將延續現行貨幣寬鬆政策，等同對風險敞開大門。

市場認為，薩默斯退出角逐之後，以擁護貨幣寬鬆政策著稱的聯準會第二號人物葉連（Janet Yellen）可能接掌聯準會。不過葉連的提名仍未確定，如果是其他人選出線，市場反應也可能不同。

薩默斯決定退出競逐聯準會主席一職，他表示若獲提名，他的任命案恐在國會參議院引發極大爭議，恐將損及國家利益。總統歐巴馬已表示接受。

薩默斯退出的消息傳出後，美國股票指數期貨與美國公債期貨上揚，投資人與分析家表示，漲勢可能延續到週一的交易。

羅金漢資本顧問公司（Rockingham Capital Advisors）的弗魯（Scott Frew）表示：「我第一個念頭是，市場會因為這個消息上漲。一般對葉連的觀感，認為她絕對比薩默斯鴿派。」

聯準會在金融危機期間與危機過後，都採取特別措施，力圖提振美國這個全球最大經濟體。目前聯準會每月購買850億美元公債與證券，也就是所謂的量化寬鬆計畫。

那波貨幣寬鬆有助美國股市飆升至創紀錄新高，政府公債殖利率拉至新低，由於美元流通全球，全球市場也因此獲益。

不過由於各界認為聯準會振興方案可能在近期退場，市場為之震盪，美國債券殖利率飆升至兩年新高，凸顯聯準會的一舉一動，對全世界各地投資大戶或散戶而言，都是牽一髮而動全身。

葉連向來強力擁護現任主席柏南奇（Ben Bernanke）以激烈措施刺激經濟成長的政策，願容忍更大通膨以拉低失業率，被稱為「鴿派」。

分析家認為，葉連獲提名將提振市場，因為那代表柏南奇政策可能延續。

加州「目標財富管理公司」（Destination WealthManagement）創辦人兼執行長吉上（Michael Yoshikami，譯音）說，「我不只預期股市會漲，殖利率也會下降，因為」葉連獲提名，「聯準會將維持柏南奇道路。」

不過由於其他人選還包括前聯準會副主席寇恩（Donald Kohn）、前財政部長蓋特納（Timothy Geithner）、前聯準會副主席佛格森（Roger Ferguson），葉連以及她的鴿派作風並不一定會到來。

多倫多凱投宏觀公司（Capital Economics）首席美國經濟學家艾希華斯（Paul Ashworth）指出：「然而，歐巴馬政府對（挑選）葉連不是很熱中，所以我們不能確定她一定會贏得首肯。」  

聯儲議息結果主導美股走勢

美國股市上周在敍利亞局勢紓緩的消息推動下造好，但本周焦點會回到本土，關鍵在於聯邦儲備局周三議息後的公布，一旦結果出乎市場意料之外，市況會出現大幅波動。
上周，道瓊斯指數與標準普爾500指數分別升3%及2%，主要是因為俄羅斯推動和平解決敍利亞化武危機，且得到美國的認同，可能毋須動武，令市場風險溢價減退。最終，美國及俄羅斯在上周六聯合公布，達成和平解決化武危機的框架協議。
政治問題淡化後，市場焦點回到經濟基本因素，而聯儲局周二及周三舉行的議息會，無疑是最重要的消息。
過去數月來，美股3大指數走勢已反映了聯儲局會減買債規模的預期。U.S.Bank財富管理高級定息工具策略師Daniel Heckman表示，投資者已消化了聯儲局減買債的消息，因為美國國債孳息率已升至2年新高，而股市則自8月中的高位顯著回落，反而令上周的市況變得平 靜。
他相信，現時最關鍵在於聯儲局主席貝南奇議息會後的言論，以及減買債的幅度。目前，市場普遍預期聯儲局會把每月850億美元的買債金額，減少100億至750億，而且全數是來自減買國庫券，買按揭債券的數額不變。
如果真的一如估計般的減買債幅度，市場人士相信，標準500指數可望在50天移動平均線取得支持。上周五，指數收高於該支持位的0.7%。
不過，梅隆銀行財富管理投資總監Leo Grohowski認為，倘若聯儲減買債幅度較上述預測高，可能會令大市出現異常波動，因為市場未有作出相關預備，屆時資金會流向防守性較強的股份。他相 信，市況一旦逆轉，今年以來受惠於量化寬鬆措施的金融及耐用消費品股份，可能面對較大的下跌壓力；房地產類股份也會偏軟。
因此，TD Ameritrade首席策略師JJ Kinahan表示，有交易商在上周五於期權市場進行套戥活動，減少持貨的風險。
Fiduciary Trust投資總監Michael Mullaney承認，已出售組合部分資產，減低可能面對的風險，因為不明朗因素太多。
基於大市8月已回落，標普500指數現水平處於預期市盈率14.6倍水平，與歷史平均15倍水平相若。
RCM財經服務顧問Mike Tosaw相信，全球股市很可能會受到聯儲局減買債消息的衝擊，持續出現回落。
除了聯儲局議息會外，本周較重要的消息包括聯邦快遞及甲骨文的業績；經濟數據方面，則有8月新屋及二手房銷售，以及費城聯儲商業活動指數等。