聯儲局再減買債100億美元
美國聯儲局主席伯南克主持任內最後一次議息會議，一如預期，當局宣布再縮減買債100億美元，但沒有調整前瞻性指引，即是加息門檻維持不變。聯儲局公開市 場委員會結束一連兩日議息會議後發表聲明指，考慮到就業市場已取得的進展和經濟前景的改善，決定從2月起繼續削減月度資產購買規模，將長期國債購買規模從 400億美元降至350億美元，將抵押貸款支持證券購買規模從350億美元降至300億美元。這樣一來，聯儲局月度資產購買規模將從此前的750億美元， 縮減至650億美元。聯儲局認為，去年12月以來收集的信息顯示，美國經濟繼續復蘇，就業市場總體呈現進一步改善趨勢，失業率下降但仍處於高位；居民消費 和企業固定投資增長加快，但房地產市場復蘇勢頭有所減緩；財政政策仍然束縛經濟增長，但影響程度減輕；通脹水平低於長期目標，但長期通脹預期穩定。聯儲局 在聲明中重申，在失業率高於6.5%、未來一至兩年通脹預期不超過2.5%的情況下，聯儲局將繼續把聯邦基金利率（即商業銀行間隔夜拆借利率）保持在零至 0.25%的超低區間。聯邦公開市場委員會預計，在失業率降至6.5%以下之後，仍可能在一段時間內把聯邦基金利率保持在目前的超低水平，尤其是在通脹預 期持續低於2%長期目標的情況下。聯儲局表示，如果未來數據符合聯儲局對就業市場持續改善和通脹向長期目標靠攏的預期，聯邦公開市場委員會可能在未來的會 議上繼續小幅削減資產購買規模。在去年12月的貨幣政策例會後，聯儲局宣布從今年1月開始將月度資產購買規模縮減100億美元，降至750億美元，邁出了 縮減量化寬鬆的第一步。外界普遍預期，聯儲局將在接下來的幾次會議上，繼續保持這一縮減節奏，到今年底完全結束購債計劃。聯儲局主席伯南克任期會在周五屆 滿，今次是最後一次主持會議。副主席耶倫下月1日接任，成為聯儲局成立100年來首位女主席。
《華爾街內望》儲局如預期再削購債規模，美股指挫逾１％，債市漲
《經濟通通訊社３０日專訊》美國股市主要股指昨晚受累於聯儲局進一步實施退市措施所打
壓而挫跌逾１％，相反地，避險資金流入美債市場推升債價。
聯儲局的聲明公布，下月開始進一步削減每月購債規模１００億美元，至６５０億美元，合
符市場預期。
道瓊斯工業平均指數收市報１５７３８，跌１８９點或１﹒２％。標普５００指數收
１７７４，跌１８點或１％。納斯達克指數收４０５１，跌４６點或１﹒１％。
波音公布季度盈利大增，但股會仍然暴挫５﹒３％，收報１２９﹒７８美元。雅虎重挫
８﹒７％，收３４﹒８９美元。一日前，該公司公布網絡廣告價格下跌，連續第四季度打擊公司
的營業收入。
美債方面，則受惠於避險資金流入，儘管土耳其大幅加息以支持里拉匯價，但投資者仍然擔
心新興市場經濟體的前景。此外，投資者亦憂慮美國能否及時提高１６﹒７萬億美元的政府法定
舉債上限。
指標十年期公債價格尾市升１７╱３２，孳息率報２﹒６９％，最低見２﹒６６％，為逾兩
個月以來低位。三十年公債價格漲２６╱３２，息率報３﹒６３％，盤中觸及去年十月以來最低
位３﹒６１％。
伯南克主持任內最後1次會議 再減買債規模
聯儲局主席伯南克主持任內最後1次政策會議，全部10名委員一致決定，下月起將每月買債規模再縮減100億美元，減至650億美元，符合市場預期。
伯南克上月中宣布啟動退市，本月起減少買債100億美元至750億美元，部署逐步退出長達5年的量化寬鬆措施。伯南克上月中提到，主席職務交接並不影響政策決定，強調耶倫亦支持減少買債的決定。
伯南克的8年主席任期明日屆滿，副主席耶倫將接替他出任下屆聯儲局主席，任期4年，是聯儲局首位女主席。
Fed Officials Unite Behind Taper as Yellen Era Begins: Economy
Federal Reserve policy makers cut the pace of bond buying for a second straight meeting, uniting behind a strategy of gradual withdrawal from Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented easing policy as Janet Yellen prepares to succeed him as chairman.The Federal Open Market Committee said it will trim monthly purchases by $10 billion to $65 billion, citing labor-market indicators that “were mixed but on balance showed further improvement” and economic growth that has “picked up in recent quarters.”
It was the first meeting without a dissent since June 2011, showing the tapering strategy has brought together policy makers concerned the Fed’s record $4.1 trillion balance sheet risks causing asset price bubbles with those who, like Vice Chairman Yellen, say more needs to be done to reduce unemployment.
“As we transition from Bernanke to Yellen, she’s in a pretty good place in terms of holding together the center of the committee,” said Stephen Stanley, the chief economist for Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “It should be relatively easy to hold together a pretty wide consensus.”
Policy makers pressed on with a reduction in the purchases, put in place to speed a recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression, even after payroll growth slowed in December and amid a rout in emerging-market currencies.
The Fed left unchanged its statement that it will probably hold its target interest rate near zero “well past the time” that unemployment falls below 6.5 percent, “especially if projected inflation” remains below the committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. Stocks remained lower and Treasuries gained.
Stair-Step
“The Fed is staying the course,” said Guy Berger, an economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “The hurdle for backing away from the implicit stair-step taper that they’ve suggested, which we view as roughly $10 billion per month, and winding down the program in September, is pretty high.”The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index extended losses after release of the statement, falling 1 percent to 1,774.20 in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note declined seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 2.68 percent.
“This introduced a little bit more clarity and certainty to markets on the direction of the Fed,” said Heather Loomis, the West Coast director of fixed income for JPMorgan Private Bank in San Francisco, who helps oversee $11.5 billion in assets. “It would have been confusing if the noise in emerging markets caused them to change course.”
Emerging Markets
The S&P 500 has fallen 4 percent this year, driven lower by a rout in emerging-market currencies that helped fuel a $1.87 trillion selloff in global stocks in the week to Jan. 27. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has declined 6.6 percent this year.The Fed repeated that inflation “persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully.”
The central bank’s preferred gauge of consumer prices climbed 0.9 percent in the year through November and hasn’t exceeded the Fed’s goal since March 2012.
Bond purchases will be divided between $35 billion in Treasuries and $30 billion in mortgage debt beginning in February, the Fed said. It repeated that purchases are not “on a preset course.”
The Fed’s decisions over the previous 20 meetings have met with dissent, either from those who opposed the Fed’s stimulus policies, or those who said the central bank should do more to boost the economy.
Fed Presidents
Seven regional Fed bank presidents have dissented since 2011. The Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker objected to every decision in 2012. Kansas City’s Esther George objected all of last year, until the Fed announced its first tapering in December -- a decision that drew an objection from the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren, who believed the Fed was cutting back too soon.Rosengren later withdrew his opposition, saying in an interview this month he would support a gradual tapering, even though he would have preferred to begin later.
The December’s decision was accompanied by a stronger commitment to keeping interest rates near zero until unemployment declines, an effort to keep long-term interest rates from rising as the Fed curtailed stimulus.
“To the extent that there are doves who had misgivings about tapering, they were probably quelled to a great degree that the forward guidance was strengthened,” Stanley said.
Rotating Voters
Fed district bank presidents rotate voting on monetary policy each year, with Cleveland’s Sandra Pianalto, Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser, Richard Fisher of Dallas and Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis voting in 2014. Fed governors hold permanent votes, as does the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who serves as FOMC vice chairman.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the Fed would taper purchases by $10 billion today. The FOMC will continue tapering at each meeting and end the program no later than December, according to the Jan. 10 survey.
Bernanke outlined the strategy for tapering at a press conference on Dec. 18, the last of his eight-year tenure. His term ends in two days, and Yellen takes over Feb. 1.
“If we’re making progress in terms of inflation and continued job gains, then I imagine we’ll continue to do probably at each meeting a measured reduction,” he said.
Job Growth
Since then, a Labor Department report showed payrolls in December rose at the slowest pace in almost three years, partly reflecting the impact of bad weather. The unemployment rate declined to 6.7 percent, a five-year low, as people left the labor force.Other data have shown continued strength in an economy that expanded at a 4.1 percent annual pace in the third quarter, the most in almost two years.
Retail sales climbed for the ninth straight month in December as frigid temperatures prodded Americans to buy discounted winter clothing and shop online for the holidays. Industrial production last month capped the strongest quarter since 2010.
