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| 美聯儲主席伯南克在宣佈縮小量化寬鬆政策的記者上（AP） |
此前市場多數觀點認為，開始縮減QE3的時間將是年初以後。FOMC在聲明中指出，「勞動力市場的狀態出現改善，家庭收支消費和企業設備投資也出現好轉」。考慮到目前這種良好狀況，「決定緩慢減少證券購入規模」。
具體而言，自明年1月起，住房抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）購買規模將從每月400億美元減少至350億美元，同時美國國債將從每月450億美元減少至 400億美元，分別減少50億美元。之後的縮減速度沒有提及，僅強調「並未預先作出決定」。在滿足勞動力市場進一步改善、通貨膨脹率呈現上升趨勢的條件 後，「將在今後的會議上進一步縮減證券購買金額」。
與此同時，還將加強旨在推升寬鬆預期的時間軸政策。美國聯邦公開市場委員會此前作為繼續事實上的零利率政策的條件，一直稱需要滿足「失業率持續高於6.5％」的條件。而此次將上述表述改為了「在降至6.5％以下後持續相當長時間非常重要」。
在美國聯邦公開市場委員會結束後，美國聯邦儲備委員會（FRB）主席伯南克當日下午2點半起參加記者會。伯南克的任期將在明年1月底結束，此次將是伯南克最後一次參加美國聯邦公開市場委員會後的記者發佈會。
美國聯邦公開市場委員會于12月18日發佈了按季度修訂的中期經濟展望。2014年美國實際國內生産總值（GDP）增長率預計為2.8～3.2％。相比9 月預期將上限提高了0.1個百分點。而失業率預計為6.3～6.6％，但9月以來預期為6.4～6.8％，此次上下限均有所下降。2013年通貨膨脹率預 計為0.9～1.0％，下限低於1％，顯示目前物價上升壓力正在減弱。
（矢澤俊樹 華盛頓報導）
圍繞美國是否退出量化寬鬆，全球金融市場正搖擺不定。自美聯儲主席伯南克談及年內將退出量寬已經過去了大約8周。諸如大量熱錢從新興市場流出等狀況，全球市場陷入混亂。面對美聯儲錯綜的信息，越來越多的市場人士感到困惑。
本月11日美國道瓊斯30種工業股平均指數再創新高。原因是美國聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）7月10日公開了此間的會議主旨（6月18日～6月19 日），市場解讀認為，對量寬持積極態度的「鴿派」主張在會議內容中得以體現。美聯儲推出第三次量化寬鬆（QE3）政策後，每月買入850億美元的美國國債 等資産。如今市場最為關心的就是這一買入操作將從什麼時候，以怎樣的幅度縮小。
會議主旨的內容顯示，FOMC多數成員認為勞動市場需要進一步改善，並以此作為減小買入額度的條件。對於已經做好9月份退出量寬準備的市場人士來説，這無 疑是一個令人放心的消息。不過，市場仍然存在些許疑慮。在會議主旨的另一段表述中指出「FOMC半數成員希望在年內停止買入」。如果單看這段內容的話，又 可解讀為美聯儲將儘早退出量寬。因此，市場表現出困惑也是固然。
美聯儲的信息為何如此錯綜。解釋其中理由的關鍵，在於FOMC的人員構成。決定美國金融政策的FOMC由19人組成。其中持有表決權的是包括主席伯南克在 內的7個理事，以及紐約聯邦儲蓄銀行總裁杜德利和輪值的4個地區的聯邦儲蓄銀行總裁，共12人。剩餘7個地區的聯邦儲蓄銀行總裁沒有表決權，只參加成員討 論。在具有表決權的12個成員中「鴿派」佔比較高。而沒有表決權的地區的聯邦儲蓄銀行總裁中像Fishie Dallas等對繼續實施量寬持慎重態度的「鷹派」人士則不在少數。因此從19個成員整體來看，主張年內停止國債購入（儘早收縮量化寬鬆）的人佔了半數。
其實，圍繞量化寬鬆是否繼續或者退出，FOMC內部也存在意見分歧。造成信息錯綜複雜的就是這個原因，當然另一個因素是伯南克主席不盡一致的表態。
（伯南克此間的一系列表態）
5月22日 「今後幾次的FOMC會議上可能會決定減小購入量。」
6月19日 「根據經濟狀況年內將放慢購入節奏，明年中期結束購入操作。」
7月10日 「直至將來，美國經濟都非常需要寬鬆的金融政策。」
這8周時間裏，金融市場因為伯南克的表態而不知所措。5月的發言之後，解讀為量寬即將退出的投資者爭相規避風險。這導致了包括日經平均股價在內的全球股價 的暴跌。接著在6月的FOMC後的記者會上，伯南克又談到了具體退出量寬的日程。投資者開始從亞洲及新興市場撤走資金，導致印度和土耳其等國面臨貨幣貶值 壓力。
伯南克的真正意圖到底是什麼？7月10日的演講也許能提供了一些線索。當被問及退出量寬會不會引發市場混亂時，伯南克表示，「避免了未來更困難的狀況」。
如果市場判斷認為量寬還將持續的話，資金就會流入高風險的資産領域，這可能導致資産泡沫。FOMC部分成員表現出了這樣的警惕。因此，伯南克 先故意表示要儘早退出量寬，而當這一認識普遍被市場接受後，他又拋出了將繼續實施量寬的言論，以消除市場混亂。這樣的解釋應該可以成立。
2008年金融危機以來，世界經濟與市場一直依賴於史無前例的美國量化寬鬆政策。而圍繞量寬的出路，FOMC也確實存在意見上的分歧。可以説市場的困惑完全反映了FOMC內部的混亂。
本文作者為日本經濟新聞（中文版：日經中文網）美洲總局 編輯委員 西村博之
聯儲局減少每月買債 道指曾急升逾200點
聯儲局一連兩日議息會議後，決定啟動退市，減少每月買債規模100億美元，即分別減少購買按揭抵押證券及國債規模各50億美元，令每月買債規模降至750億美元。
另外，聯儲局決定維持聯邦基金利率0 至 0.25厘區間不變 。聯儲局落實退市，美股大幅回升，道瓊斯指數早段曾下跌67點，其後顯著上升，升穿16000點，一度急升218點，高見16093點。
美元匯價上升，歐元兌美元跌至1星期低位，最新報1.3792美元。美元兌日圓報103.37日圓。
Fed Trims QE Pace to $75 Billion on Labor Market Outlook
Dec 19, 2013 7:15 AM GMT+0800
The Federal Reserve is trimming its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, taking the first step toward unwinding the unprecedented stimulus that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke put in place to help the economy recover from the worst recession since the 1930s.“Reflecting cumulative progress and an improved outlook for the job market, the committee decided today to modestly reduce the monthly pace at which it is adding to the longer-term securities on its balance sheet,” Bernanke said at a press conference in Washington today after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Stocks rallied, sending benchmark indexes to all-time highs, as the Fed coupled its decision to taper with a stronger commitment to maintaining an accommodative policy. The Fed said its benchmark interest rate is likely to stay low “well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below” the Fed’s 2 percent goal.
“The action today is intended to keep the level of accommodation the same overall and to push the economy forward,” Bernanke said. “We are committed to doing what is necessary to getting inflation back to target.”
Price gains have lagged below the committee’s long-run target. The central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed 1.1 percent in the year through October. It has not breached 2 percent since March 2012.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.7 percent to 1,810.65 at the close of trading in New York. Ten-year Treasury notes pared losses, with yields rising six basis points to 2.89 percent after climbing as much as nine points.
New Direction
“The Fed exit has begun, and the economy will guide how quickly they continue to cut back their stimulus,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “They changed the direction of policy today, and once they started this step, history tells you, they won’t reverse it.”The Fed’s purchases will be divided between $40 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage bonds starting in January, Bernanke said.
Bernanke, in the final weeks of his eight-year tenure, is curtailing the purchases that swelled the Fed’s balance sheet almost to $4 trillion as he sought to put millions of jobless Americans back to work. The policy also raised concern that it risked inflating asset-price bubbles even as its economic benefits started to wane.
‘Data Dependent’
“The steps that we take will be data dependent,” he said. “If we’re making progress in terms of inflation and continued job gains, then I imagine we’ll continue to do, probably at each meeting, a measured reduction” in purchases. If the economy slows, the Fed could “skip a meeting or two,” and if the economy accelerates it could taper a “bit faster,” he said.The Fed has said it will keep buying bonds until the outlook for the labor market has “improved substantially.” Bernanke today said the program was on its way to meeting that test.
“We’re just beginning this process now, so by the time we complete this process, I think it’s very likely that we’ll easily pass the hurdle of a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market,” he said.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren dissented, saying curtailing bond purchases was “premature until incoming data more clearly indicate that economic growth is likely to be sustained above its potential rate.”
Yellen’s Support
Janet Yellen, the Fed’s current vice chairman and President Barack Obama’s nominee to succeed Bernanke, voted in favor of the policy action today. Bernanke said he has “always consulted closely with Janet, even well before she was named by the president, and I consulted closely with her on these decisions, as well, and she fully supports what we did today.”Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who had dissented from the previous seven FOMC meetings this year citing concern the Fed’s policies could lead to financial instability, did not dissent today.
Policy makers met amid signs the economy and labor market were gaining strength, even as inflation remained subdued.
The jobless rate fell to 7 percent in November, a five-year low, as employers added a greater-than-forecast 203,000 workers to payrolls. Unemployment was down from 10 percent in October 2009, during the recession, and up from 4.4 percent in May 2007.
Retail Sales
Retail sales climbed by the most in five months in November, a sign that consumer spending was strengthening as the holiday season began. Industrial production last month increased by the most in a year, a Fed report showed this week.Companies including Ford Motor Co. are benefiting from rising demand for new cars. Ford said this month it plans to add 5,000 jobs in the U.S. and will introduce 16 new vehicles in North America next year. The payroll expansion will continue following the hiring of almost 6,500 people in 2013.
The Fed’s low interest rates have prompted consumers to buy homes or refinance existing mortgages, sparking a recovery in the housing market that was at the center of the financial crisis.
Housing prices climbed 13.3 percent in the 12 months through September, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller index of prices in 20 cities. The pace of home construction reached a more than five-year high in November as builders added to inventory to keep pace with demand, a report from the Commerce Department showed today.
Weak Recovery
Growth so far has lagged behind previous recoveries. In the 17 quarters since the recession ended, the economy has expanded at an average annualized rate of 2.3 percent each quarter. That compares with an average of 3.2 percent over the same period following the 2001 and 1991 recessions, and 5 percent following the 1982 recession.“We have been disappointed in the pace of growth and we don’t fully understand why” it has been slow, Bernanke said today.
The Fed’s debate over when to taper purchases has dominated central banking discussions for much of the year, setting off waves of volatility in financial markets. In May, Bernanke told Congress that the Fed may slow its purchases during the “next few meetings.”
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to as high as 3 percent in September from as low as 1.61 percent in May, as investors anticipated a reduction in Fed stimulus. The national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 4.58 percent in late August from 3.35 percent in May, according to Freddie Mac.
Taper Talk
“As soon as they started talking about tapering, they raised interest rates,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York and a former Fed economist.Bernanke, 60, whose term ends Jan. 31, orchestrated the most aggressive easing in the Fed’s 100-year history and expanded its powers as he battled the financial crisis and then sought to keep the economy growing.
He pumped up the central bank’s balance sheet to $3.99 trillion from $869 billion in August 2007 and has held the main interest rate close to zero since December 2008.
Yellen’s Yellow Light
The Fed Tiptoes Into a Taper
By Jeff Kearns | Updated Dec. 18, 2013
The taper. Isn’t that a giant nocturnal pig? No, you’re probably thinking of the tapir.
The taper is a kind of monetary policy. It’s the bland, one-word
shorthand for the winding down of the biggest financial intervention in
history: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s five-year investment of more than $3
trillion (that’s almost the size of the German economy) in bonds to
prop up economic growth after the global free fall of 2008. There’s
plenty of controversy
about whether buying bonds with money conjured from thin air saved the
world or has fueled new bubbles. But there’s been none about how
perilous it will be to stop. To investors and central banks around the
world, the taper is much scarier than pigs in the night.
The Situation
In December, the Fed’s policy making committee announced that the time had come to taper,
but just a bit. It said it would continue with the bond buying program,
known as quantitative easing, or QE, but drop its monthly purchases to
$75 billion from $85 billion. The program had been started by Fed
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, and the taper was announced at his last
meeting. The task of managing the slowdown is falling on Janet Yellen, the economist chosen by President Barack Obama to succeed him. The Fed emphasized
that the taper was only a “modest” one, and that its near-zero interest
rates would continue. How markets react to the taper is a concern to
countries around the world: The mere hint by Bernanke
in May that the taper might be near led to a jump in mortgage rates.
Similar bond-buying programs have been started by the Bank of England
and the Bank of Japan.
The Background
The idea behind
QE is that you don’t need a printing press to add money to an ailing
economy. The Fed’s usual method of fighting recessions is to push down
the interest rates banks charge each other for overnight loans, which
allows banks to offer cheaper loans to businesses. But the Fed cut that
rate almost to zero during the financial crisis five years ago, and more
was clearly needed. So the Fed began buying bonds in hopes of driving
down long-term rates that are usually outside its control. It wasn’t a
new idea, but it had never been tried on such a massive scale. Since September 2012, the bank has been snapping up $85 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
Unlike earlier rounds, the Fed’s purchase plan was described as
open-ended, with officials saying it would continue until the labor
market “improved substantially.” The idea was that reducing them
gradually — that is, tapering them off — would make clear that the
central bank would continue to offer support for the economy, just at
lower levels. But its problem soon became how to convince markets that a
taper was different from an exit.
Almost since the first QE purchase, critics have been warning that it would spur inflation. They’ve been wrong so far. Prices fell in October,
putting the 12-month inflation rate at 1 percent, half of the 2 percent
the Fed regards as healthy. Others pointed to increases in the stock
and housing markets as incipient bubbles fueled by the Fed. There’s also debate about how effective QE has been. Some economists see only a modest effect, coming mostly through lower mortgage rates. A former Fed official who executed the bond purchases, Andrew Huzar, charged that
“while there had only been trivial relief for Main Street, the U.S.
central bank’s bond purchases had been an absolute coup for Wall
Street.” Yellen said that the pain for savers from low interest rates
was more than offset by the help the
policy has given to the labor market and the economy as a whole. At the
same time, she acknowledged that QE “cannot continue forever.” The
Fed’s action in December is not the end of the taper, but is the
beginning of the end for QE.
聯合國：美QE退 衝擊全球經濟
（法新社紐約聯合國總部18日電） 聯合國今天說， 2014年全球經濟將會往上成長，但美國開始縮小量化寬 鬆（QE）規模時，全球經濟將有一番震盪。聯合國年度「世界經濟情勢和展望」（World Economic Situation and Prospects）報告預測，2014 年全球經濟將成長3.0%，2015年3.3%，高於2013年的 2.1%。
聯合國專家說，他們對於全球經濟的看法變得比較 樂觀，因為歐元區各國逐漸擺脫經濟衰退，美國經濟成 長力道轉強。
報告說：「包括中國大陸與印度在內，幾個大型新 興經濟體想辦法擋住2年來經濟成長減慢的趨勢，並轉 向溫和成長。」「這些因素促使全球經濟成長。」
然而聯合國說，美國聯邦準備理事會近幾年用來刺 激經濟的量化寬鬆政策縮減之後，全球經濟可能面臨震 盪。
聯準會已經宣布，從明年1月起，量化寬鬆規模降 為750億美元。
聯合國報告說：「聯準會縮減量化寬鬆規模可能導 致長期利率上漲。」
報告補充說，這也可能導致各國投資人出脫持股， 流入新興經濟體的資金減少。報告特別指出，新興經濟 體會受到較大衝擊。（譯者：中央社何世煌）
聯儲局啟動退市 美股道指收市創新高
美國聯儲局啟動退市，下月起每月買債
規模縮減100億美元，減至每月750億美元。另外，聯儲局決定，維持聯邦基金利率0至0.25厘區間不變 。
主席伯南克說，會視乎經濟數據表現調整買債步伐，若果就業及通脹數據持續改善，可能會進一步縮減買債規模。
消息公布後，投資者認為聯儲局的決定證明經濟改善，帶動美股大幅上升，道瓊斯指數和標準爾普500指數都創收市新高。其中道指收市報16167點，上升292點。
美國聯邦儲備委員會（FRB）此次決定縮減量化貨幣寬鬆的規模，是出於對近期美國的就業形勢改善自信的加強。不過，美國經濟依然面臨低通貨膨脹等風險。量化寬鬆退出之前的道路尚不清晰。
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| 美聯儲主席伯南克在宣佈縮小量化寬鬆政策的記者會上（AP） |
此外，曾作為風險因素的美國財政問題已經降溫，這也起到了明顯作用。美國議會與在野黨已經就為期2年的財政支出規模等部分達成協定，磋商暫時實現軟著陸。對此伯南克表示，「由於財政制約減輕，經濟增長將加強」。
此前較多市場觀測認為，美聯儲為了採取安全舉措，縮減量化寬鬆的判斷將推遲到明年1～3月。而推測的依據是美國的物價動向。美國的通貨膨脹率遠遠低於作為美聯儲長期目標的2％，持續徘徊在1％左右。因此認為縮減量化寬鬆仍然為時尚早的觀點根深蒂固。
對此伯南克解釋稱，物價上升壓力降低的現象「只是暫時性的」，但同時也透露「有些擔憂」。伯南克反復強調稱，量化寬鬆縮小的速度「將參考相關數據」。同時還暗示，如果經濟出現下行風險，將停止退出舉措，根據情況甚至可能再次轉向追加實施量化寬鬆。
在伯南克作出慎重説明後，市場暫時未出現動搖。但是，如果以100億美元的規模分階段縮減量化寬鬆，僅僅結束證券購買就將需要花費2014年大約一年時間。史無前例的量化寬鬆舉措僅僅是打開了走向長期退出的大門。
（矢澤俊樹 華盛頓報導）
